The US could seize $353 billion of Ukraine’s oil and gas revenues under the terms of Trump’s minerals deal, new Global Witness analysis shows
As per the draft deal, the US is demanding half of the revenues from new oil, gas and mining projects in Ukraine – now and forever – as well as from new resource infrastructure built in the country.
According to Global Witness’ analysis of Rystad Energy data, revenues from Ukraine’s untapped reserves of oil and gas alone are expected to top $706 billion over their lifetime.
This puts $353 billion of the war-torn country’s oil money at risk of being siphoned off by the world’s richest nation.
Campaigners are advocating for a green reconstruction, as part of a fair deal for Ukraine as it battles Russia’s brutal invasion. Digging up more fossil fuels to pay for reconstruction would drag the country down a path of nature destruction, dirty air and further climate damage, instead of utilising cheaper green energy.
Emily Iona Stewart, head of policy and EU relations at Global Witness said:
“Trump’s new minerals deal is a shameful case of exploiting a vulnerable country to pillage its resources. With $353 billion of Ukraine’s oil and gas money at stake, this is neo-colonialism laid bare.
“Exploitation has always been at the heart of oil and gas extraction, and we are now seeing this repeated in the scramble for critical minerals.
“Ukraine should be able to focus on a green reconstruction, not fighting the world’s richest country to keep its own resources while battling Russia on the front lines. It’s time we built a global energy system that puts people and planet first, over greed, theft and destruction.”
Trump’s plan
Trump’s proposals would give the US control over all of Ukraine’s untapped resource deposits – including minerals as well as oil and gas – and any new infrastructure used by the industry such as roads, railways, pipelines and ports.
Ukraine would have to pay 50% of the revenues from new resource projects into a joint US-Ukraine "Reconstruction Investment Fund".
The US would appoint three of the fund’s five board members, and hand them greater decision-making power than their Ukrainian counterparts, thereby giving the White House overall control of the fund.
The first $100 billion from Ukraine would be taken by the US as a payment for what it sees as "war debt" – equivalent to over half the size of Ukraine’s entire economy in 2023.
After paying $100 billion – plus 4% interest – Ukraine would then be entitled to only 50% of the fund’s income.
Washington’s "deal" has been described as an "expropriation document", "robbery" and "unprecedented in the history of modern diplomacy and state relations".
It also shows how far Trump will go to push his “drill baby drill” agenda. Ukraine has substantial reserves of oil and gas, in which the likes of ExxonMobil had major investments until Russia invaded Crimea in 2014.
As Trump’s proposal would give the US the first right of refusal on all of Ukraine’s future resource projects, this would blow open the country’s oil and gas reserves to US drillers.
