Flights from a major new airport in the Philippines may be grounded within 30 years due to sinking land and rising sea levels driven by climate change, according to a new Global Witness investigation.
The New Manila International Airport in the Philippines – projected to be the world’s third largest – is still under construction, but multiple scientists interviewed for this report agreed that the published project assessments may dangerously underestimate regional environmental factors, threatening the project’s viability.
Multiple academic studies estimate that sea levels in Manila are rising by 13-15 mm per year, nearly three times higher than the 5.3 mm referenced in the planning documents published on the project’s website by San Miguel Corporation (San Miguel), the company developing the airport. [1]
In response to enquiries from Global Witness, San Miguel claimed that the airport’s elevation design was not based on documents published on the project’s website, but on a separate study which is not publicly available. The company declined to share this report, and did not disclose the sea-level figures used in it.
The surrounding environment has been destroyed and nearby communities face a precarious situation. Around 3,000 people appear to have been displaced, and a previous Global Witness report found that people had faced a coercive consultation process in which armed soldiers were sent door-to-door, leaving community members describing feeling “terrified”. [2]
The Philippines remains one of the most dangerous countries in the world for people protecting their land, human rights and the environment. Since 2012, 298 people have been killed for doing this work in the Philippines – the highest number recorded in Asia.
Compounding the human and environmental cost, Olaf Neussner, a Climate Change and Disaster Management Specialist who spoke to Global Witness for this report noted that the published feasibility study was “very unrealistic”, adding that “within 30 years, high tides will probably start coming into the airport area. Decades from now, even normal tides could spill onto the runways. Storm surges and tsunamis could shut the airport down entirely for weeks. We’re looking at a disaster-prone project”.
A similar project in Japan also built on reclaimed land with high levels of subsistence – Kansai International Airport – faced catastrophic flooding less than 25 years after opening.
Aurelie Skrobik, campaigner at Global Witness, said:
“Who is this sinking airport for? It doesn’t serve the thousands of people who’ve been displaced in its wake, nor does it serve the vital ecosystems destroyed to make way for it. With rising oceans and sinking land threatening its future, soon enough it may not even serve people who want to fly out of it.”
The report also reveals that Boskalis Westminster N.V., the Dutch dredging giant involved in building the land for the airport, has exited the project prematurely due to sand shortages, leaving the airport construction delayed and in limbo. Boskalis had promised the project proponents would develop "hundreds of hectares of new wetlands" as part of an environmental mitigation plan, yet these pledges remain unfulfilled. The USD $1.5bn contract is the biggest in Boskalis’ history.
Despite these failures, the Dutch state export credit agency Atradius is insuring the project to the tune of over USD $1.7bn, and international banks such as ING, HSBC and Standard Chartered are financing the airport’s construction.
The findings come as the European Union has opened the door to weaken a landmark law to prevent large companies operating in Europe from damaging the environment and threatening human rights around the world in projects such as these.
On February 26th, the European Commission is expected to announce a revision of a corporate accountability law called the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, agreed in 2024 but which is yet to enter into force. If implemented in its original form, the law could limit the ability of companies like Boskalis to profit from damaging projects such as the New Manila International Airport.
Aurelie Skrobik said: “Boskalis – a huge European company – has profited from a billion-dollar deal to help build an airport that may soon be flooded. Thousands of people have been displaced, and the local environment has suffered. If this was happening in the Netherlands, there would be an international outcry – but they’ve been allowed to get away with it because they’re operating in the Philippines.
"We urgently need the European Union to rethink its attempt to undermine a new law that would hold companies accountable for harming the environment and communities around the world. The EU must help stamp out these kinds of practices once and for all."
/ ENDS
Notes to editor:
[1] Studies by the Oscar M. Lopez Center (OMLC), the Philippines National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the University of the Philippines Department of Geodetic Engineering and the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) estimate that sea levels in Manila are rising by 13-15 mm per year, nearly three times higher than the 5.3 mm calculated in the project assessments available on San Miguel’s NMIA project website.
Dr. Rosalie Reyes, who led the Coastal Sea Level Rise (CSLR) project for the Philippines Department of Science and Technology, calls the disparity glaring. “I don’t know how they came up with this figure”, she told Global Witness. “Our data shows a rise of 13mm/ per year based on tidal data from 1970 to 2020 in Metro Manila”. San Miguel claims to have comprehensively addressed the risks posed by the infrastructure's weight, by land subsidence and by sea-level rise in the airport’s final design, and disputes that any risk of future flooding is backed by scientific evidence.
[2] San Miguel stated in 2023 that the compensation or resettlements provided for around 360 displaced households align with the country’s regulations and international financing standards and the airport project adheres to international standards on environmental and social sustainability and all relevant domestic law on such developments. The company denies any harassment or intimidation by the military and claims that the local government requested its presence to ensure peace and order in the community. Boskalis and the Dutch state export credit agency Atradius did not respond to request for comment.